No matter what happens with the rest of the New York Jets’ season — short of winning the Super Bowl — fans are going to look back and wonder “what if.” As in, “What if Breece Hall stayed healthy?” and “What if Mike White didn’t miss weeks 15 and 16?”
While each year every NFL team — well, 31 out of 32 — can ask the same question, it does particularly sting with these Jets. They have one of, if not the best, defensive units in the league and … well, if Breece stayed healthy and White didn’t get hurt, who knows where they would be right now.
As it stands, we don’t live in an alternate universe, and the Jets head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in a win (or, technically, tie) and go home scenario with the playoffs on the line. A win boosts the Jets’ playoff chances to 35%, up from the current 15% chance they have, according to the brainiacs at FiveThirtyEight. A loss? Well, that’s that. The season is over. Zero chance to make the playoffs. (A tie keeps them at 15%.)
The Seahawks are in just about the same position. If they lose, their playoff odds fall to 5%, down from their current 27% perch. A win, however, and their odds jump to 43%.
So yes, you might say this game will have a bit of a playoff atmosphere to it, and if the sportsbooks are to be believed, it should be a fun way to spend late afternoon on New Year’s Day, as the Jets are a 1.5 -point favorite at -110 at FanDuel and bet365. They’re also -120 on the moneyline at Caesars.
The over/under is a relatively low 42.5, though it has been creeping up during the week. The best bang for the buck on the over is at FanDuel at -108, the under at -110 at DraftKings and others.
Speaking of that over/under … the over might be a number to attack, as the Jets’ pass offense should be able to exploit the Seahawks’ 21st-ranked passing defense (per Football Outsiders DVOA metric). And while the Jets defense is obviously a strong unit, the Seahawks have the ninth-ranked passing offense (again, DVOA).
Is it so far-fetched to see both White and Geno Smith tossing two touchdown passes each, with another two coming from somewhere? In short: A 24-21 game doesn’t sound out of the ordinary here.
While player props haven’t been released yet, anyone looking at the over in this game will undoubtedly be intrigued by Mike White’s passing yardage number, as well as the receiving yardage numbers of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Tyler Conklin.
For purposes of season long-comparisons, the four are averaging 66, 30, 43, and 30 yards per game, respectively. Considering the Jets’ season thus far — specifically the fact Zach Wilson was quarterbacking more than half the time — any yardage props that come in near (or even below) those numbers above have to be considered.
It’s win or go home for the Jets, so you can expect the kitchen sink to be tossed about here. It would seem clear the best path forward for the Jets is on the arm of White, so once those props post, it’s immediately worth checking them out.
Photo: Mark Konezny/USA TODAY