Fresh off a bye and a beatdown of the Buffalo Bills, the 6-3 New York Jets are on the road this Sunday against the 5-4 New England Patriots.
This is setting up as a bit of a statement game for both teams. A Patriots win solidifies this talent-lacking New England squad as another in a long line of Bill Belichick-coached overachievers, while a Jets victory would force the rest of the league — as well as NJ sportsbooks — to start to take them seriously.
Right now, the Jets are lacking in the serious department, as they’re 3.5-point underdogs, with the best bang for the buck happening at -115 at DraftKings. If you want to give up that half-point, it’s +100 for 3 points at PointsBet. Things aren’t much better on the moneyline side of the business, with bettors able to snag the Jets at +150 at PointsBet.
One item, however, seems like a bit of a foregone conclusion: Defense looks likely to rule the day. The over/under is pegged at 38, with the best odds being offered at Caesars Sportsbook (among others) at -110 on both sides. The Patriots are third in total team defense DVOA at Football Outsiders, while the Jets are ranked sixth.
The #Jets defense did this to Josh Allen, arguably the NFL's best quarterback
18 of 34 (52.9%) for 205 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs and a QB rating of 46.8.
Forget top-five.
This might be the NFL's best defense.
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) November 6, 2022
On the passing side, the Patriots’ DVOA is second, while the Jets rank sixth. On the rushing side, the Jets are solid if unspectacular, ranked 10th. But the Patriots? They’re ranked 21st in rushing DVOA, creating a clear path for the Jets to take the ball out of Zach Wilson’s hands and put it in the bellies of Michael Carter, James Robinson, and Ty Johnson. Heck, let’s give Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson a few carries while we’re at it.
But maybe a zig?
Clearly, it would seem like the best bet for the Robert Saleh-led Jets is to keep the ball on the ground for as long as possible.
This opens up the possibility, however, for some longshot bets to come in on touchdown scoring. After all, if we know the Jets should run, it’s fair to assume Belichick knows that as well, and perhaps Saleh will try to keep the Jets one step ahead by letting Wilson throw more than might be expected, especially early.
With that in mind, the touchdown player props will offer some interesting angles once they’re released. As of this writing, only bet365 has posted anytime touchdown scorer odds, and the Jets receivers offer some real value.
Tyler Conklin is currently the Overall PPR TE6.
Tyler Conklin is currently rostered in 16.1% of leagues on ESPN.
Please, someone, explain this to me like I'm 5…
— Nate Polvogt (@NatePolvogt) November 1, 2022
Tight end Tyler Conklin is at +450, Garrett Wilson is at +275, Elijah Moore is at +300, and Corey Davis — assuming he plays — is at +260. Conklin is probably the best bet on the board, but any of these pass catchers are viable longshot candidates for a score. And they might make even better “first touchdown” dart throws once those odds hit the streets.
Photo: Chris Pedota/USA TODAY
