It would take a breakdown of Pisarcik-ian proportions for the New York Football Giants to miss the playoffs this year.
According to FiveThirtyEight, they have a 92% shot at getting there. And according to the NFL, all they have to do is win this week against the Indianapolis Colts, and their ticket is punched.
For the record, there are no less than six other ways they can get in this week even if they don’t win, with three tie scenarios and three loss scenarios. The easiest path — outside of winning — is seeing the Browns top the Commanders and the Jets top the Seahawks.
So, yes, the Giants should get in the playoffs barring disaster, and even the sportsbooks — who have been bearish all year on the 11-4-1 against-the-spread Giants — think this will be the week they get it done.
The G-Men are 5.5-point favorites at -105 at FanDuel, and -240 on the moneyline at PointsBet. The books think the matchup will be low-scoring, with the over/under settling in between 38 and 39.5. The best bet on the “over” Friday morning was the 38 at BetMGM, at -110. The under 39.5 can be found at WynnBet at the same -110.
Worth noting: In the past 48 hours, the Giants’ odds have gotten marginally better while the over/under has gotten slightly lower, indicating that bettors are leaning into a Giants victory.
Wink Martindale: “Here’s what we need. We need playoff fans to show up for this game and be as loud as they can be.
“I know it’s New Year’s Day. If you have one going on on New Year’s Eve, keep it going and take it through the game… I can’t wait for it.”🥂 🎉 #Giants #Colts pic.twitter.com/wHWAQzFbJp
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 29, 2022
The game plan
With Brian Daboll at the helm, and with his willingness to shape his offensive game plan to take advantage of opposing defenses’ weaknesses, expect a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley on Sunday.
Barkley’s over/under rushing yardage prop is set at 77.5, with -115 juice on either side at DraftKings, though the under is being offered at -109 at Caesars. Somewhat surprisingly, Barkley has exceeded that yardage number only eight times this year, though he has done so the past two games.
And with the Colts’ rushing defense a middling 15th in Football Outsiders DVOA, it would seem likely that as long as the game stays close, the ball will find its way into Barkley’s belly early and often. While his rushing attempts prop hasn’t been posted anywhere yet, anything less than 17.5 would seem attackable.
One area where the Colts aren’t terribly attackable is against boundary receivers, setting things up nicely for the G-Men’s slot man Richie James Jr. Again, his receiving props have yet to post, but anything under 40.5 yards or 3.5 receptions would seem to be attackable on the upside.
All told, the way the Giants offense matches up against the Colts defense, and with the continued troubles the Colts offense can be expected to have, it’s possible the “under” might be the best way to bet on this game.
Photo: Matt Krohn/USA TODAY
