The 6-2 New York Football Giants play host to the 1-6-1 Houston Texans on Sunday. And the NJ sportsbooks — obviously — have New York as the favorite.
But the spread is only 4.5 points at FanDuel (at -110) and the Giants’ moneyline price is set at -210 at DraftKings.
So: Are the sportsbooks correct? Are the Giants a mere 4.5 points better than the woeful Texans?
Well, the game will be played on the field, so we’re bound to find out, but this is setting up as a potential statement game for a team that no one is ready to take seriously.
Best moments from London. When the rest of the league learned how dangerous the “bad” New York Giants are
— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) November 10, 2022
And quite frankly, the Giants might romp here, especially considering the state of the Texans’ bottom-ranked rushing defense. In short: It’s terrible, ranked last by virtually every metric, from Football Outsiders DVOA to — very simply — most rushing yards allowed per game.
Match that up with New York’s rushing game — sixth most yards in the league, ranked 12th by DVOA, featuring a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley — and the blueprint for Big Blue is clear: Run the damn ball.
If the Giants can manage to win this one, they have another home tilt next week against the almost-as-woeful Detroit Lions before heading to Jerryworld for a huge matchup against the Cowboys.
The battle ahead — and some free money
But first things first on New York’s agenda: Capture the win against the Texans in what the sportsbooks figure to be a low-scoring game, with the over/under pegged to 40.5.
Props are starting to dribble out for this game, and one of the most attractive ones has to be Barkley’s rushing yardage prop, currently pegged at 93.5 at Caesars at -117. Maybe an even better idea is Barkley’s combined rushing and receiving number, which is at 120.5 at -115 at DraftKings.
Mike Greenberg @Espngreeny gets it.
Pretty good reason to lock up the guy that makes the Giants offense go.
And no. Some 5th round running back for a fraction of the cost is NOT doing what Saquon Barkley does for the Giants. So save that nonsense for someone else. pic.twitter.com/m3Vk6cBICa
— Doug Rush (@TheDougRush) November 10, 2022
Clearly, the oddsmakers expect a heavy dose of Barkley, with his rushing attempts number set at a sky-high 21.5 (at -110 on the over) at DraftKings. It’s a number Barkley has exceeded only three times this year.
Interestingly, Daniel Jones’ rushing attempts prop sits at 6.5, with the over juiced to -145 at bet365. He’s hit the over four times, and — incredibly — in the other four games, he landed precisely on six carries.
But the best bet on the board may be the Saquon anytime touchdown prop. It’s practically half-price off at bet365 at -120, as it’s as high as -275 at BetMGM. And as of this writing, there’s even an arbitrage opportunity, as you can be “no” on Barkley scoring a touchdown at SuperBook at +126 odds. Run, don’t walk, to this free money.
Photo: Jeremy Reper/USA TODAY
